THE WORLD-CHANGING DEMOGRAPHIC DRAMA (2/2)

The population increase in Africa and the Middle East from Palestine to Pakistan
1950-2050

(The only large region of the world where in most countries family planning is not easily available.)

The Simplest And Most Extreme Example

Uganda is the same size as the United Kingdom, the birth rate is over four times the death rate, and the population has increased from about 5 million in 1950, to 10 million in 1975, to 20 million in 1995, to 40 million in 2015, and to over 80 million in 2045. (The United Nations estimates of the 2045 population are: low 84 million, medium 93 million, high 102 million.)

A Proven Way To Put It Right

There is one beacon of light, and that is Iran, where the fertility rate fell from 5.62 children per woman in 1985-1990 to 1.89 in 2005-2010. This was done by the provision of virtually free family planning, with pro-active health workers and clinics in most localities, encouragement from the government and from religious leaders, teaching about population matters in schools, and lessons on family planning for both men and women before marriage.

"Family planning could bring more benefits to more people at less cost than any other single technology now available to the human race."
Director General of UNICEF, Cairo Conference, 1993
"Quite as important as the Four Freedoms... is a Fifth Freedom – from excessive numbers of children. Far more than much of the world realizes, even the partial achievement of the first four is dependent upon this last."
'Road to Survival' by William Vogt, 1948. (The Four Freedoms were
freedom of speech and worship, freedom from want and fear.)
"Population problems are of extreme importance….they have a vital bearing on world peace."
Mgr Giovanni Battista Montini (the future Pope Paul VI)
writing to the Twenty-sixth Italian Catholic Social Week, 1953
"A problem which everyone talks about, is that of birth control, as it is called, namely, of population increase on the one hand and family morality on the other. It is an extremely grave problem."
Pope Paul VI, 23 June 1964. (Report in The Times 24 June 1964)
"There is no denying that the accelerated rate of population growth brings many added difficulties to the problems of development... There is no doubt public authorities can intervene in this matter... They can instruct citizens on this subject and adopt appropriate measures."
Pope Paul VI in his Encyclical Populorum Progressio, 1967.
Paragraph 37 with the theological hesitations removed.
"The green revolution has won a temporary success in man's war against hunger and deprivation; it has given man a breathing space. If fully implemented, the revolution can provide sufficient food for sustenance during the next three decades. But the frightening power of human reproduction must also be curbed; otherwise the success of the green revolution will be ephemeral only... Most people still fail to comprehend the magnitude and menace of the 'Population Monster'."
Norman Borlaug, the 'father' of the green revolution,
in his speech on receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo in 1970.
"Reducing population growth will not of itself solve Africa's problems, but without it they will become insoluble."
David Coleman, Professor of Demography, Oxford University.
Times, 3 October 2005

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