Reducing death rates whilst leaving birth rates high makes extreme poverty certain.
This happens because the resulting population increase outstrips resources.
It will happen even if all debt is abolished and all trade is fair.
Here are the population increases in Africa plus the Middle East to Pakistan, a region of the world where in most countries effective family planning is not easily available.
|300 million||in 1950|
|600 million||in 1976|
|1,200 million||in 2002|
|2,400 million||in 2050|
|And onwards from there.|
This rapid population increase will result in widespread poverty, hunger, water shortage, conflict and the migration of many tens of millions of desperate people.
(The 2008 United Nations low, medium, and high estimates for the 2050 population are 2413 million, 2760 million, and 3132 million respectively.)
We should provide the poor in developing countries with the same effective family planning upon which our own peace and prosperity depend.
(Some of the reasons for our tragic lack of action can be seen in the pages ‘Consensus on population’ and ‘The taboo, or semi-taboo, or consensus on discussing population’.)